traders say they're going to be watching both for hints on when the fed may start to taper all thoi given some of the guidance we've seen lately we wonder if we'll get any hints. if you've been watching the futures, the dow futures are up. s&p 500 futures are flat. chinese stocks surged. the bullish sentiment followed news late on friday when the country unveiled reform plans including easing the one child policy and allowing market pricing of key policies. unit yoon will join us from

beijing. in the earl will i trading in europe, you can see some green arrows. modest advances. everything below half percent increase. germany looks like it's the best performers up by close to half a percent. >> hope you had a great weekend. among our top stories, we're talking this morning a lot about former treasury secretary tim geithner. he's joining warburn pincus. he's been a distinguished fellow. he's conducted a series of seminars across the country. he's in the process of writing a book. we'll talk more about the story with politico's ben white in just a few minutes. jpmorgan agreeing to pay $4.5 million to settle claims for people who lost money on mortgage-backed securities. the bank reached that with 21 institutional investors and security trusts issued by jpmorgan and bear stearns which they acquired. washington mutual which jpmorgan

acquired and we should note that this deal is separate from the preliminary $13 billion settlement the bank had reached with the government. you're talking about $4.5 billion on top of that $13 billion. we should also note that 4.5 of that 13 has already also been paid. that's actually a different subset. we talked about that a couple of weeks ago. in other financial news, the ft reporting that the fed is delaying implementation until july 2015. this would give banks additional time to conform with the provisions. the rule bans proprietary trading that puts the bank's own capital at risk. it's currently set to be a force this coming july. the new york stock exchange and nasdaq going to back up the data stream to all things reporting that a deal could be reached by the end of the month.

>> pushing it off will give the banks time to figure it out how to implement the rules. it's the regulator's fault for not getting things cleared up more quickly. they want to make sure the banks have more time to conform. >> we can talk about this with ben. it now turns on the idea that the ceo would have to sign off sort of like starbucks. they would sign off to say we have done no proprietary trading which will actually be a big shift. >> well, because proprietary trading is such a gray area. you can sign and say that you're not doing it. if you were later found to have done it, yeah, the ceo would be personally liable. >> the market is incredible, isn't it? it's good to know that it has nothing to could with qe like mcken zzie found out.

they did a study and it has nothing to do with qe. has nothing to do with 85 billion -- >> but we're listening to every word the fed says. every fed official who comes through, we can't wait for these fmoc meetings to figure out what was happening behind the curtain. >> waiting. >> i can't listen to it anymore. >> i don't know why people would think there's going to be -- given yellen's testimony, now i know greg ips said potentially she was repeating what bernanke was saying, didn't want to say anything new, but yellen didn't make it sound like they were tapering any time soon. >> good. a number of headlines out of the dubai air show. emirates led the ordering with 150 new 777s mini jumbo aircraft. >> what's a mini jumbo aircraft. >> like a jumbo shrimp.

>> i don't know, mini jumbo aircraft. a deal worth $76 billion. it also ordered 50 airbus a380s. boeing announced a total of 259 new 777 jets code named 777x. the deals are worth about 100 billion at list prices. the largest combined order though in boeing's history and in other industry news, we had this out of russia, at least 50 people were killed when a passenger plane crashed in central russia last night. it was a boeing 737. one of the safest planes on the planet. it was from moscow. it exploded after it tried to land once, tried to land again. ran into the landing -- the runway and burst into flames. it was operated by regional airline. boeing says it's prepared to provide technical assistance to the authorities as they investigate the accident.

they have said it's well known that russian safety is not quite up to par in terms of training -- pilot training as far as regulation. another tragedy elsewhere, at least two minors were killed and 20 others injured at a mining accident in a silver mine in southwestern colorado. the cause of that accident is under investigation. authorities have ruled out an explosion or cave in. and in weather news, dozens of tornadoes go to six people. injured 45 in illinois alone with gusts up to 50 miles an hour and expected to batter new york, boston and as far north as maine early today. take a look at the markets this morning. as we showed you, the dow futures are indicated slightly higher. not massive gains at this point. dow futures up by 21 points. s&p and nasdaq futures are flat. if you look at what's been

happening, the dow and the s&p 500 ended at record highs again on friday. both of them closed in on these big round numbers. 1800 for the s&p, 16,000 for the dow and that makes people start to wonder if maybe the retail investors want to look at this and say, wow, what have i been missing once again? if you looked at barons over the weekend, they talked about how the social meet yeah stocks have taken off. they're wondering if they're overpriced. they looked at some of the big blue chip stocks and wonder if there's room to run. wti down by 43 cents to 93.41. the ten year at this point is yielding 2.708%. let's take a look at the dollar. some of the foreign exchange markets. the dollar is down against the yen and the euro. euro is at 1.3505. your' looking at 100 for the dollar versus the yen. gold prices are down by $3.90. $1,283 an ounce. it is time for the global

markets report. we are focusing on china and the reforms that are having an impact. eunice yoon joins us from beijing. good morning, eunice. >> good morning, guys. the reforms were very, very bold. a lot of people were talking about how they were much more dramatic and much more fundamental than investors had hoped. because of that people are starting to believe that china could be at a turning point and they're very hopeful over the next ten years this economy is going to be much, much healthier. in terms of that plan, that 60 point plan, some of the highlights were basically that the leadership is going to be okay with the government having a reduced role in some of the sectors that had been heavily dominated by the states. they are talking about how they're going to be pushing market oriented pricing for waters or for transport or telecommunications. there's another role in sectors that have been dominated by the government. the final point that people have been talking about as far as the

state-owned enterprises is basically foreign investors will be allowed now in areas that had been restricted in the past, such as e. commerce. the other big highlight was in the financial sector. basically what we're seeing is that the government is going to try to professionalize the banking system. they're talking about putting the markets in the interest rates so that interest rates are going to be more market oriented. also, they've been talking about how they're going to improve the ipo system so that state-owned systems don't get preference to private companies and finally what they're going to do is really create the conditions and deregulate the financial system in order to try to pave the way so that the chinese currency will be convertible. all of these have been very big, bold moves. what people are waiting for is how all of these are going to be implemented and what the time line is really going to be. >> up nieunice, thank you.

you saw the child policy. >> that reminds me. when i saw it, i was like, god, is it for real? >> the one child policy. >> when you do it, you get penalized. the differences, we have been lulled into this notion, they're not so bad over there in china. the communist party. can you imagine living there where you'd arguably be in trouble. it wasn't your fault. it was your fault, you were -- i know your wife blames you for -- but, you had two right away. you, you'd be in jail. you have three, right? but living in a society where -- >> they tell you. >> what happens if you, god forbid -- >> i think it's fine. they don't put you to death. >> are there morphines if you go higher? >> yeah. >> meaning if you go to two, is the third more expensive than the second? >> we forget, don't we? we think about -- we take so many things for granted. just normal everyday freedoms of -- if you're crazy enough to have ten kids, you can do it

over here. >> i put that in the crazy category. >> you know -- >> cheaper by the dozen, you know what they say. >> if you can afford it and if you love -- you know, big families are a lot of fun. >> they are. >> i mean, i wouldn't know. i was an only child but -- >> yeah. cheaper by the dozen. that's what they say. we do have a number of washington stories to talk about this morning. from obama care to tim geithner's new job. politico's ben white joins us on set. ben, another day and another look at the obama care from the front pages. >> right. >> "new york times" lays out a lot. honestly, i didn't remember. 1989, the medicare catastrophic act. americans were so angry that they stripped it and got rid of that law. i think it's a stretch to seau bomb ma care is headed there yet. >> yeah, it's early to say that. i think the key test will be the implement -- or the december 1 date to get the website working

and if they do that, there is a story over the weekend saying 80% of folks will be able to use the website. it will be better to say that. if they get the website going, people want to sign up, you'll see a little bit of pressure ease up. not a lot of it. there's the entire question of people losing their plans. all the cancellation l understa works. the bottom line is get out of the weeds. the plan was sold under false pretenses. people are angry over that. it's taken a huge toll on obama's rating. is the law going to collapse of its own weight? i think it's way too soon to say that. get the website working. people sign up. it will be a lot better. people want to keep the plans, they can keep it. >> you said folks. you're getting that from the president. >> folksy. >> i use that phrase. >> it's so nice. >> i'm saying i think the law is in trouble. >> always worried about the folks. this is an interesting piece about they're going to have to delay -- still have high risk pool. this is the other thing that i

thought was interesting. this huge picture they have of hc, hillary clinton. not only is 2014 everybody's running on or against obama care, but they're pouring over hillary care to see all the stuff that was in it to call her the mother of obama care for 2016 to start saying this is the woman that brought you what -- >> you knew that was going to happen. >> i didn't know that we'd go back -- >> it's a lot worse now that the law is not doing well. if it were doing well -- >> hers was worse -- >> it failed and it cost clinton his congressional majority in 1994. >> it never came up before. it was never even -- >> no. it was all done behind closed doors. she's reinvested herself sings the failure of her health care initiative in 1994. it's going to be an issue in 2014 and 2016 for her. they're going to say she's the mother of obama care. she has to figure out a way. that's why bill clinton was distancing her and him from this law. that was a calculated political move to isolate hillary --

>> he doesn't calculate things like that. >> he does calculate things like that. he's trying to protect her. i don't know that she can be protected. >> how much was geithner getting paid per speech? >> i don't know the exact number. >> 150,000, 200,000? >> he's given a few. >> this is a quantum leap. >> this is a quantum leap from that. >> all the scuttlebutt, people are nasty and cynical. he's never been in the private sector. he's there to go raise money -- >> he worked for kissinger. >> he worked for goldman. >> no, i know that. >> they say he's going to go. he can open doors with the sovereign investments. is he going to be saying -- andrew and i had this. >> you were? >> we don't agree on everything. >> the point that gielt nir -- >> the talking points. >> the other geithner has no investing experience is somewhat

belied that he did manage the largest treasury in the world. arguably he created confidence for the american people and sold citi shares at bigger numbers than citi and aig. >> we'll continue the debate. >> there's someone that runs the post office, too, and they don't lose their job either but did you see the losses. their losses narrowed to 5 billion from 16 billion. >> but you can run the company forever at the government. you never stop running the company at the government. >> the point that -- >> the market -- >> when they made those investments there was no powerpoint presentation that they made that said we plan to get x type of investment return. they thought they would lose their shirts. it just so happened -- >> but the marks were not real. everything was marked and there was no buyers of anything so to go to zero -- >> they were what they were and they were what they were when they sold them. they made money off the investments. >> i think as the economy recovered that most people that ran that could have done well. >> i don't know. >> the question i have is he

clearly is very focused on the optics of this and, you know, there was time when people thought he would go work at university or that he was going to go, you know, run the red cross or do some kind of -- >> work for mother theresa. >> right. that was the view. he didn't go work for big bank. he didn't work for a big public/private equity firm. he's gone to work for a small private equity firm. >> very quiet. >> the question is are they going to be quiet forever. hiring him, are they no longer quiet? >> exactly. they are a little less quiet. he's a high profile name to go there. they're not blackstone, not kkr, not barbians at the gate. >> what's your number? what do you think? >> that he's making? >> yeah. >> couple million. >> no. >> base. >> 10 to 20. >> for his -- his base salary? >> no, i mean all in. >> all in -- >> all in on an annualized basis. he's the president of the company. >> no, i'm talking about base

salary before bonuses, before profit sharing, whatever he gets. a couple million is probably a base. >> no, no, no. this is -- >> we'll see what his end of the year number is, it's real money. 1 or 2 million is not real money. the whole point is the hand wripging ov i wringing over what geithner should have done, he wasn't going to university, finance. why wouldn't he go work in the finance industry. >> why not? >> he's not trading on stuff he did in office. it's not like he bailed out citigroup and went to work for citigroup. >> can the progressives hate him anymore than they already do for not nationalizing the banks? >> exactly. >> you should have seen some of the coverage, it was vicious. >> i'm surprising. >> he doesn't care because they already hate him. >> unfriendly sell. >> completely unfairly so. >> what do you expect the guy to do? >> these are things we talk about. >> he doesn't need to take a vow of poverty. >> this is the occupy wall street party which you have

emboldened. they're getting more powerful. >> if there's one person i don't associate with the occupy wall street, it's andrew russell. >> thank you. >> they don't love me. >> they do not. he's in the geithner -- >> he is. he is. >> bob rubin school, larry summer school. people who like the markets, like -- >> far left. agree that the private sector has some role. >> we're not allowed to make money. that's the basic premise of the -- >> whole profit incentive makes for greedy gordon gecko type characters. >> he gets paid 182,000? >> at the council? >> closer to 400. >> which was a big i shall uf at the time. and kids were going to college. >> exactly. >> there was a question in that family about whether he should actually take the job, which is kind of interesting. >> right. >> the larger question about how we should deal with regulators,

competition and all sorts of things. >> good to be tim geithner. >> yeah. >> tennis player. handsome dude. jet setting around the country. never flying commercial again. that's true. >> ben, thanks for coming in this morning. >> thank you. coming up, why one of the best known names in the casino industry is prepared to fight internet gambling. this will be one we can talk about. i don't know how i feel. i mean, i don't know if we want a whole society like -- you know, then again, how do you stop it? you know, genie is out of the bottle, humpty-dumpty fell off the wall. the loss of the broncos, 27-17. that's the beginning of this. in other nfl news the giants are 4-6 and this game next week

against dallas, 5-5? philly is in the lead. the first six games of the season, new york beat the packers without aaron rodgers. 27-13. eli looked pretty good. threw for 279 yards. now they're one game behind the eagles in the loss column for the nfc east. i think they are a better team. i'm sorry. >> the eagles? >> no, the giants. even though the jets are 5-5. the cowboys on sunday. first as we head to break, let's check in with "the weather channel's "julie martin. >> devastating day in terms of tornadoes on sunday. take a look, we had more than 498 reports of severe weather. just incredible. all of the red here. these indicate tornadoes. at least 40 now confirmed by the national weather service. the good news is no severe weather threat. however, we do have a severe

thunderstorm watch for new york, parts of southern connecticut today. that goes through until about 8:00 this morning. winds can be an issue. if i take you out to the radar you can see that most of the rain is now actually moved off shore. still, a wet morning to start the week in new york city. windy conditions around the great lakes as well. we'll see those wind advisories up. but the threat for severe weather fortunately has now moved on. we'll be back. [ male announcer ] 'tis the season of more.

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home to gamble. it's depressing to sit in your basement and play cards. isn't it alone? >> is it? >> and losing your money. >> yeah. and it's just -- well, there's so many things that are

problematic about it. >> that's weird. you would figure that it's a -- it's freedom. you're actually trying to restrict people from doing what they should be able to do. >> by the way, the steady march of the international transparency. >> in any state. sugar, drinks, all of that big stuff. >> yes. >> you want to restrict everything. >> i'm very conflicted. you want to have people have a certain amount of kale they have to eat every day, right? what is the right amount. >> of cow? >> of kale. >> of kale. >> don't you have kale juice every morning. >> you should put a little bit of kale in your blender. >> this is a tough issue. >> where are you? >> i'm not a fan of gambling but i'm not a fan of telling everybody what to do. i think a lot of this gambling is preying on the weakest parts of society. >> then you think about the lottery. which you buy all the time. >> i don't buy all the time.

i probably spend $20 a year on the lottery. >> your tax on these. you should write this off. >> it's a tax on the stupid. >> i know. gambling is. >> i take issue with a lot of gambling. i'm not going to get into it. >> you can get totally addicted to that. >> organized crime, and the cash off. >> are you okay with one child per person? i mean, that's a weird thing, isn't it? >> no, i'm not okay with that. >> you do draw the line somewhere? >> yes. but then i get into a whole person personal responsibility thing. >> you would say communist has -- >> i think that's a bad thing. >> it balances out some of the

good things. >> i don't want somebody to have five children and then all have to be, you know, on the dole and they're not working and then there's some other issues. very complicated about how you think about it. >> we've resolved knock this morni -- nothing this morning. the stories likely to drive the trading week. check out the pictures. europe's most active volcano has erupted again. mount aetna lighting up the sky. shooting up a towering column of ash. the eruption began late saturday and it tapered off on sunday morning. it didn't engadanger any of theville los angeles and no evacuation was ordered.

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stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a 30-tablet free trial. the dow and the s&p 500 continuing to rally to new records. how are investors playing the markets this week? joining us on set is jim swanson, the chief investment strategist at mfs investment and john from oppenheimer asset management. guys, i'm just wondering what you really think about things. you think that there's still room for the markets to grow even though we're hitting these new records? >> yes, i do, becky. i think what we have is we have

a migration out of bonds back into equities to more normal levels of diversification. we do have quantitative easing which is highly supportive of the move into equities keeping bond yields very low. in addition to that, i think we have a global expansion that essentially has occurred relative to the economy -- global economy essentially being fracked or primed by qe processes or parallel processes. >> how much is the fed and how much is the market? jim, i know you think fu fundamentals are being caught up to. i think they're the driver. i don't think it's qe 2. >> you don't? >> i don't. the chart is following qe 2, qe 3. follow earnings, follow cash flow. i wish people would say we were at new records in cash flow and

profitability. the balance sheets are really strong. >> that makes sense. in the past the market has not always tracked along with the fundamentals. if you think it's not the fed, what happens if they do start to taper in do you think this's no reaction in the market? >> yeah. basically what the fed is saying, the training wheels are off. this economy is on its own. it doesn't need our support. i think we should see a market that determines the clearing price of money the way the market should do it. >> it's interesting, you admitted that at this point the market is not deciding where asset prices should be. >> it doesn't know. >> it doesn't know where the clearing price of ten-year money should be for corporates or treasuries. i think we need to know that. >> john, how about you? how big of an impact is the fed at? >> i think the fed's impact is significant. it is supported by fundamentals. you can't deny what is occurring in the auto industry, the recovery in housing, the process that has occurred in the energy industry, whole revolution

occurring there in terms of infrastructure, perhaps not related to the price of oil, which is another problem. but we'd have to think, too, that the qe has to remain because robot particulars aics the factory floor. in the interim transition with a significant baby boomer generation, u.s., europe and japan, i think we'll see qe for a lot longer. we'll get tapering in march or thereafter, but where we are today is relative to jobs is the four letter word that we can all mention very easily. >> that's almost an argument for the fed never disengaging, for it always being there supporting things. if you start looking at massive structural shifts in the economy, that's not something the fed or qe will fix. >> i don't think they can fix it, but they can certainly add -- enable the transition to occur with greater ease, with

less dislocation than we might feel without qe. >> jim, there was an interesting cover in barons this week. they said that maybe some of the social media stocks, facebook, some of those felt choppy. looking at the big blue chip stocks, some of the dow components, they felt that maybe there was some value in those stocks. >> i think there is in the large cap space for sure. look at this. revenues of the s&p 500 fell below nominal gdp growth in q 1, q 2, q 3 started to pick back up. the s&p does reflect the us gdp accounts. that's much more international. they're trading pretty chief valuations. their operating leverage is really key. i think a lot of that comes from the bottom line. i think the market is telling us there's a good quarter ahead of us. >> we're at 1800 for the s&p 500. >> a 15 forward pe is not out of the bounds of normality. we looked at -- >> what's your price target? >> i don't have a price target but i think earnings are

continuing to move forward. i'm looking to the next two or three years. i don't see a recession for two or three years. >> wow. what do you think about that? >> i would have to say we look at the trailing 12-month pe at around 17 times. the last time we were there was in may 2010, which was just about the time that greece was beginning to admit that it was having significant problems with its debt. looked like the end of the world 2 was about to begin and the market is up about 50% from there. we think it's part and parcel of proper response by central banks as well as improving fundamentals. >> i have to very much agree with you. >> john, jim, thanks for coming in. >> thanks for having us. coming up next, a startup considering a shipping match maker. we'll introduce you to the ceo of a post bid shift. first though, more squawk news. the latest bcs ranking didn't change at the very top as you

would imagine. alabama and florida state. florida state, whew, staying at number one and number two. a tight race for number three. ohio state state. illinois scores a lot of touchdowns and barely edged out baylor who looked tough. just ahead, the bears could potentially pass the buckeyes if they beat number ten, oklahoma state.

welcome back. u.s. equity futures are indicating up a little bit so far after -- it's even better than before. 40 points now after a series of new highs in recent weeks.

making headlines, sony says it sold more than 1 million play station 4 video game con soles during the first 24 hours on the market. they say they expect to sell more than 5 million units before the end of the fiscal year in march. rifle val xbox 1 from microsoft goes on sale this week. it is global entrepreneurship week here. cnbc is the exclusive media partner. we have arc ses to the first ever top 100 nba startups list. joining us to talk with -- jarrett van hamstrey. he's the startup ceo of post biz. good morning, thank you. >> you are the son of, i think, your family is in the trucking business. tell us what your business does and how it's trying to revolutionize the shipping and trucking business.

>> yes. that's correct. my family has been in the trucking business for over 30 years and at post bid ship what we do is we operate a website postbidship.com where companies who need to ship freight can post their shipping jobs to our website and we go out and recruit trucking companies, freight, transportation brokers who bid on those trucking jobs and the match occurs right on our website. we are helping those companies ship their freight. >> so the idea is that there are trucks obviously on the road that are note completely full and then there are shippers who want to take advantage of it. is that the way to think about this? >> that's exactly right. >> in terms of your clients, that's a b to b business. it's not that i can spend my money on your package. fed ex can spend its money on your trucks. >> yes. >> and i notice that fed ex is

one of your clients? >> yes. that's correct. their brokerage division is a bidder on post bid ship so they need to select empty trailer sites they link to our website to find additional sites. >> what are the other types of clients. is fed ex the biggest? i don't know. what would be your sort of top five folks doing this? >> well, about half of the freight that we see at post bid ship comes from the food and beverage industry. that's the majority of it. we also ship a lot of building materials and a lot of other industrial products, chemicals, things of that nature. >> how big is the business right now? >> we'll have revenues of over 2 million for 2013. >> how big is the network of trucking companies? >> we've got over 2,000 trucking companies which represent about a quarter of a million trucks that those companies operate. >> you have a huge future. someone said to me this is like the uber of trucking and

shipping. if that's true -- >> what a great analogy. >> -- i wish you a lot of luck. jarrett, thank you and good luck. full coverage of the global entrepreneurship week can be found at gew.cnbc.com. that's the address. coming up, the state of confusion over obama care. jack markell made his way up the ladder and he'll tell us about his state and the health care. "squawk box" will be right back. ♪ [ female announcer ] you're the boss of your life. in charge of long weekends and longer retirements. ♪ ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪

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residents are among the many residents that had their health plan cancel. delaware's insurance department is meeting with insurance carriers to see all of the options on the table. governor markell is joining us. i like governors. i think governors need to -- i don't care if you're a democrat or a republican. you're a private sector guy many times. so talk about obama care. i expect we'll get some straight answers from you, although the numbers are -- i mean, i look at them. am i missing a decimal point? >> delaware's a small state. >> right. >> 136 people? is that a joke?

>> it's been a challenge, there's no question about it. >> no baghdad bob stuff. don't be sebelius here. people are interested. 136 people. how many people in the state? >> 35,000 people. >> okay. so 136,000 divided by 35,000 is what we're talking about. you lost 12,000. that's going the wrong way. so far, you've got 136 new, does that -- is that 11,000 and change that have lost their insurance? that's going the wrong way. >> well, i think everybody admits it's going in the wrong direction. and there's no question, the most important thing is to get the website fixed, number one. but number two, i mean, we've actually taken a number of steps to make sure, for example, that people who can't qualify for the subsidy can go to our website and go to the insurers. at our website they can compare plans and go to the insurers. >> at least they don't stay uncovered. >> those are for people who don't have the subsidy. bottom line, near term, midterm,

got to get the website fixed. but the most exciting part of what's going on in health care has less to do with the affordable care act impleme implementation and more about the work going on in states across the country to transform the way we deliver and pay for health care. and when you think about getting people access at a reasonable cost, that's the real important work that's going on. >> well, is your insurance commissioner said yet whether he's going to go along with the fix? >> it's a she. and she is deciding -- she's meeting with the insurance companies today. >> you haven't said we'll go along with it yet? >> no. >> would you fire her if she won't go along with it? >> she's elected independently. >> yeah, there's clearly not a single, you know, silver bullet solution here. >> the question is, it's a tough situation for some of these insurance commissioners because you have to decide whether you allow the plans to continue and whether you allow quick increases on the rates to go

through as well. >> it's a difficult decision. and we have to keep in mind. >> do you as a democrat, i mean, there is some angst obviously in the party in general. but can -- is this fixable in terms of people who had a bad experience so far? are there some people that aren't coming back? and could that cause there to not be enough people to pay for the sick people? >> for me, getting beyond the politics. i mean, i think you have to look at this in the long-term. no question short-term, this is damaging. everybody admits it's damaging. >> but will the law survive? >> look, again, i think if you take the long-term view and you recognize before this law, it was a disaster. i mean, when i was running first in 2008, people were incredibly unhappy. people with, you know, preexisting conditions, small businesses who couldn't get access. there's no question in my view that when implemented well, the law will be very positive. but i think it's, you know, we

have to -- >> well, the government takes a much bigger role in the delivery of health care under this law. and there's some people that think this is a manifestation of how the government runs things. how can you be so sure? >> my job is to take a more nuanced view of this. >> as a democrat or governor? >> as a governor. as a governor for sure. i think, again, for me, this isn't so political. for me, the biggest issue is how do we get away from fee for service? how do we get away from the system? >> we were doing that already. >> hardly, hardly. >> it's got to be done in accommodation with medicare. because medicare sets the standards for this stuff. >> right. but the real question. >> you think this is going to change that? >> well, i think there's no question it will. 25 states across the country including delaware right now are working on how do you get away from fee for service? instead of paying hospitals based on how many beds they fill up. when do we pay based on when they keep people well at a reasonable value?

one thing were the innovation grants. oregon has done, arkansas's doing, lots of states across the country are doing good work. >> what is delaware doing in that vein? >> we have to submit our plans to the fed by the end of the year, we will do that, but we have had the doctors, the hospitals, the businesses at the table trying to figure out how we're going to get this done. there are so many buzz words thrown around. affordable care organizations, personal medical homes and within all of that, actually we believe there is -- >> i agree with you 100% the fee for service is a huge part of the problem and a huge part of the waste. also how do you make sure doctors and hospitals take on patients incredibly sick without being penalized? >> well, that's why the law of large numbers, for example, matters. we have had -- i've been very encouraged be i the response of the hospitals and of the doctors sitting at the table. they realize that what we have

now is not sustainable. this is one of the reasons in the end i think the law will work is because the status quo. if you look at how much states are spending on health care, how rapidly it's been growing, taken away from everything else we want to do, it's not sustainable for that reason and all you have to do is talk to -- >> could've done a lot -- this law could've done a lot more in terms of bending the cost curve. did you see some of -- i saw some stuff over the weekend in new hampshire where because of the way that the networks are set up. people are passing three and four hospitals and driving 50 miles to get to the only doctors that are covered in their plan. you're at about 57% of this approval of this law at this point. and it bifurcated the entire country and poisoned the political atmosphere over the past four or five years. i hope it was worth it. you think it's worth it, we'll see. how do you get beyond the politics? >> this has to do whether people are getting access.

>> there's different ways of doing that. could have been done in a bipartisan way that might have been 60% approved. >> the law that passed will not be the ultimate, you know, it's going to have to continue to get better. >> are you frustrated with how it's played out? >> i think everybody's frustrated. there's no question. if you look at the numbers, look at the challenges. >> would you have delayed it knowing what you know now? >> yeah. >> how long? >> i don't know. first of all, i think you want to know when is a website going to be functioning? given how important it is that people are able to access the website -- >> right. >> to enroll, particularly the healthier, younger people, that it seems everybody knows. you've got to get that working first. >> we've seen the government run a lot of things and this is a bad omen for the way -- thank you, governor. >> we'll be talking to tim geithner and a lot more when we return. ♪ ♪

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investors search for critical clues, what you need to watch this week when trading resumes. is the december taper back on the table? we're going to ask walter isaacson. credibility in question, former aetna ceo ron williams on president obama's fix for health care and what he needs to do to win back trust from americans. >> picture this on thanksgiving day. you cook all day long just in time for this. >> okay, everyone, it's 2:30. time for dinner. because on thanksgiving, 2:30 is dinner time for some reason. >> because of this -- >> have retailers taken it too far when it comes to the holiday

shopping experience? former toys r us ceo will join us as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernan and becky quick. see how the futures are setting themselves up. dow looks like it would open up about 53 points higher. the nasdaq a little over a point. let's get you through some of the morning headlines this morning. jpmorgan chase reached a $4.5 billion settlement. 21 institutional investors. this is the late nest the legal settlements for the bank. issue bank. jpmorgan bought bear stearns in march of 2008 in one of the key events of the financial crisis

era. also a bit of news that sort of he said/she said. apple either did or did not buy the company behind the so-called connect technology that's in microsoft's xbox. an israeli financial newspaper reported over the weekend that apple bought what's called prime sense for $345 million. but prime sense now is telling business insider that the story wasn't true and we will try to get to the bottom of this. also, the new york stock exchange and nasdaq, they're apparently close to an agreement to back up each other's data streams. this would be a little bit more cooperation than we've seen between two exchanges that don't seem to love each other. an agreement could come by the end of the month. the idea is to prevent data outages. that's actually kind of good that two guys who kind of hate each other would say, you know what, in the common good, we'll all do business together. i like that idea. i don't understand this apple

story, though. >> i don't get that either. >> i'll tell you this connect thing is amazing. we're going to talk a little bit about other stuff later. >> yeah, we are. we have a guest. it's weird the way -- walter isaacson is here. >> one of the greats. >> which is cool. >> how many books? unbelievable book. does your book do a million? it's a cottage industry, isn't it? >> yeah. when you talk about jobs and apple and kinect, it's a secretive company. it's going to be fun -- >> does that mean you're not going to tell us how many books you've sold? >> how did you know, joe? my publisher wouldn't tell me, why should i tell you? >> you, if it doesn't hit a million. >> we have not hit a million. international sales, we might. >> what about -- >> i think he's clearly over a million. you can look on book scan to figure out how he's doing. >> he's doing just fine. >> what do you do on ebook

versus hard cover? >> when my book came out, ebooks were not as popular. >> i just want to intro him real quick and do a couple of other stories. i'm sure you've heard about the tornadoes and the damaging storms sweeping across the midwest yesterday. illinois took the brunt of the fury with late season tornadoes wiping out homes, injuring dozens, at least six people were killed and the storms also hit parts of wisconsin, indiana, ohio, and kentucky. and chicago's soldier field was basically shut down during the bears/ravens game for two hours. the game eventually resumed and then the bears managed to win in overtime. also, former treasury secretary tim geithner is joining private equity firm as president and managing director. since leaving the government, geithner has been a distinguished fellow on the council for foreign relations and has conducted a series of seminars across the country. he's also in the process of writing a book. we're going to talk more about

this in a moment. >> he won't sell a million for sure. he's not going to get anywhere close. >> hey, joe, joe, one of the good things about the book industry, it's still alive, you know. unlike music or other things. >> it's true. >> clear. clear! >> like kindle. >> it's a cottage industry. >> they buy books. the difference is they buy -- >> you know what, content will never go away no matter how -- >> the problem is when people think content should be free, which fortunately hasn't hit the book industry yet. >> yet. >> as we said, walter isaacson is our guest host today. he is the president and ceo of the aspen institute. we also mentioned he's the author of the best-selling book steve jobs. and walter, we are dying to hear your thoughts on obama care. we've been talking about this a lot this morning. trying to figure out where we are in the situation. you're a big thinker. where do you think things stand at this point? >> well, i love the conversation between joe and governor markell. because in some ways both are

right. this is an absolute disaster when it comes to showing can government do something big? we watch airlines merge and private industries and they're trying to get reservation systems right and takes three or four months of a bad flying summer. this one was difficult. but i do think and i know you'll push back on me that it is a problem the way things were before. two things, the fee for service which y'all talked about but also kids in their 20s. kids my daughter's age, they want to join start-ups, they want to be independent. employee, you know, health care is really something we have to get away from. people need to be able to go on to market and buy insurance. well, is this the best way to do it? i'll say, no, obviously not. >> you've seen how many companies have taken spouses -- >> people in this country need health care. >> but it's happening with these companies. they're going to the private exchanges that have been around. it is happening. all these things, we are

migrating that way. >> and i think this is a big bump in the road. it will make things happen that way a little bit more in the future and soon we will get to private exchanges. which is where we should be. >> right. but what i think we'll look at in hindsight is the way that rahm emanuel or the way that others might have approached this. you could have said no preexisting conditions, can -- you would have opened up the competition and -- >> could you do that without the monodate? >> i think i could have done a lot of things. i think 2010, the takeover by the republicans, i think the tea party was spawned by the way obama care was handled. and if it were, actually, let's say it either gets totally changed or collapses completely, we will look back on this and say what did we just do for six years? what did we go through for six years? >> you're right about that. >> i agree with walter's point.

>> we don't get anywhere better. >> the question of the mandate is the key one. can you force insurance companies to take on people with preexisting conditions and other situations without forcing -- >> expanding -- >> healthier people. >> and the answer is i don't think so -- you don't think so. can't happen. >> you're on the board to united. have you changed anything about your health care coverage? >> no, i mean, i don't want to get -- >> what did you say? >> united health care. >> no, i'm on -- >> united airlines. >> he's on the board of united airlines. >> no, one thing i will say on that in a broader sense, yo uh look at three great airlines now that merging, america, delta, american airline and united. they've got to compete with six or seven major global airlines leaving aside the ones in the gulf states that have subsidized and that's a different issue. you've got to compete or work with a different health care structure. so we need to have a rational health care structure in america for big industries to work and for small businesses to work.

and for kids to become entrepreneurs. >> getting back to this, though, i know the longer term goal is we'll get there and get there without paying. i wonder what happens january 1st with the millions of people who are getting their insurance coverage canceled. the president has said they can keep it at this point that the insurance companies can decide to keep offering it, but i think you're going so have massive dislocation come january 1st. >> let me tell you one thing, i happen to have known jeff. if there's some hope we're going to get this done, he's cool, he's smart, he's, you know, very efficient, very business oriented, and you know what, once the website and the exchanges are working -- and they will be -- it may not be november 30th, january 1st, but i think they'll get better and better. this could recede. we could have the driving off the cliff and the spiral joe talked about. or we could a couple years from

now and say what were we thinking. of course we needed to find ways for people to go on individual exchanges for health care. of course that was messy. but for goodness sake, we're in a better place now. >> i don't know. i don't know. i'm wondering -- i'm wondering at this point whether, you know, some people that tried and if they're young, they may say, look, it's too -- we don't know what it's going to cost either. and all these mess-ups now could make it more expensive when we finally see. you've read the -- there's been a lot written over the weekend about this is really scary now, but look, this is what's coming. >> especially when you get into the cost spiral. let me ask you, isn't this a direction, had it worked that we should've been going which is to have exchanges, have health care for everybody, make sure that younger people could get -- >> you've seen how effectively the state -- i don't know how you get 50 out of 50 states. so that everyone is covered. but, you know, there's a lot of things i think the states do better than the federal

government. and i don't know whether that would have been a way to do it. >> i'm going to agree with you. there probably were better ways to get from here to there. but i'm just saying, the there is where we want to get to. >> yeah, we want to have everyone covered obviously down the road. but i think there's, you know, people on the other side had different ways of accomplishing the same thing. we'll see whether this happens and whether it was all worth it. i don't know. i mean, from the very beginning, the way it played out. they lost the seat, they lost ted kennedy's seat which threw the whole thing back -- it was -- >> look. it's a sad -- >> it's awful. >> it is. >> and it poisoned -- people say it hasn't been this bad since the civil war -- >> by the way, it has been this bad since the civil war. it was bad in the mccarthy era. >> in three months we're going to try and -- we're not thinking about solving anything. we're trying to keep the government open every three months. >> if we're trying to get from here to there, you've got to say who are the people hoping it'll

work and trying to make it work and who are the people trying to make it not? >> i don't think as a rule that an entitlement this big should have been done without a single republican vote. >> but we are where we are now, we've got to hope it works. >> well, you know -- >> and we've got to try to make it work. >> i don't know. >> about anything we do as a country. >> we'll have more on obama care in the future. ron williams joins us shortly. up next, investors searching for critical clues about the state of the economy. a bernanke speech and fed minutes are scheduled for this week. we'll speak to the head of u.s. equity strategy coming up next.

fed chairman bernanke set to give a speech tomorrow night on the economy. investors are also anticipating the release of the fomc minutes on wednesday. joining us now to talk about this week's market expectations barry. i guess we can talk about fed. we can talk about -- we're talking about obama care with walter isaacson as well, barry. and i said there are people, there are republicans that do say repeal and replace. there are still people around that don't think that because this is already the law of the

land that it needs to stay. and i was thinking your coming up, you're probably a person who would like to see this go away and start with something else, wouldn't you? >> well, i think you hit an earlier point. it was bad policy the way it was constructed to be sure. whether the intentions were good or not. you know, if you think about the things that have happened in the last few weeks, the website, then you move, you know, you move on to you can keep your plan. well, now it's, can you keep your doctor? the small group plan is a big issue. there's a series of these things that are rolling down the track. >> and we didn't even talk about. half of this country thinks that the specter has hurt job creation. and that's one of the reasons, or made it a part-time, you know, employment picture. there are people -- we haven't talked about that side of what may be his -- why. >> the only push back is once again, look at the in the end we're going the have such a stronger economy. >> couldn't we have done more on the cost side of things?

there are people that said we didn't address the cost side. >> it's better than it's been in the past 20 years. >> that's coming down because of recession, right? >> i don't know. you're the expert. >> the utilization. >> that's right. it came down because of economic factors. i've sat with multiple analysts and things like selling dental products and the like and it's definitely had downward pressure. but the quote i always -- >> you're saying downward pressure because of the economy or because there's utilization. people are starting to utilize these things more efficiently? >> well, it's probably a little bit of both, quite frankly, andrew. but the economy put downward pressure on discretionary services for sure. more broadly, though, the right way to think about this is we have this series of public policy and uncertainty shocks and savings got to all-time record highs. extremely unusual during a recovery. and it began in 2010. if you look at macro economic indicators in 2010 like jobless claims, they were tracking

almost identical to what happened in '82, '83, and then they stopped going down. business confidence plunged. in essence as the administration and 111th congress tried to rewrite a full 1/3 of the economy. it was disruptive from a business confidence perspective. and it did delay the recovery. no question about it. we're starting to get out of that. obama care for me is kind of fascinating at this point from a macro economic perspective in two senses. one is on the political side, it lowers the probability of another government shutdown to be sure the victory that the democrats had obviously proved pretty fleeting. but on the other side, if this small group plans -- if this continues to permeate, this could create a negative confidence shock for the consumer. we're not there yet, but it could be considerably more disruptive than it is. >> where are you on back to just business, barry? last time you were on, you got a little negative too quick. did you turn back positive?

is this frothy here because of what we're seeing in the social networking stocks? >> well, we were looking -- we were looking for the market to end the year at 1600 until 159 on september 8th, when they took a pass on tapering, we passed our price target to 1800. >> now i remember you did that. >> that's right. and we're just about there. all we think they did was pulled returns forward. we think january's probably going to be a bit of an issue getting into the first quarter of next year. that's when the correction will come. >> you changed -- yeah, and you probably invoked keynes there. that's the only time you'd ever, when -- >> that's right. >> they didn't do the taper. and you went to 1800 from 1600. >> no, that's exactly right. we're just about there. does the market look frothy? for sure. but, you know, i also would argue that the main reason the market has moved the way it has through the course of the year is we're not being driven by these stocks with bond-like

characteristics anymore. we're being driven by cyclical sectors, the industrials. we buy into this of u.s. manufacturing, that's been the best performer since the middle of may. much like tech was in the '94 fed-related correction and energy was in the 2004 fed-related correction. we think that, you know, the market's telling you that things are getting better for the industrial sector. and there's a good story ahead for the u.s. but we still have to go through the fed related correction. >> when will -- as the fed even though tapering doesn't mean tightening, people will view it that way. when do we get it where it's not in front of us? something to put behind us? >> well, you have to take the first step. if you look at every business cycle since world war ii, it doesn't matter how aggressive the fed is from an equity market perspective, it surely does for bonds, but you have to get through this first step where you introduce the uncertainty and the market has an 8% correction.

you know, there's a small standard of deviation around that. it takes a couple of quarters to work through that uncertainty and the market resumes the up trend. that's probably the first half of next year. >> all right, barry. >> thank you. >> when i asked that question, i forgot you had all that data. you've made that point before. we were actually tracking '82, '83 until what happened with the aca. now cause and effect is not -- >> by the way, i quoted him then too because he wrote a letter to roosevelt in '33 and said you're engaged in double task of recovery and reform, but if you're hasty with reform, you might impair the recovery. >> those are the only two times, huh? >> exactly. >> all right, barry. it's still knapp, right? >> it still is. >> that's a "k." >> it's like knowledge.

>> all right. thanks, barry. when we come back, the dubai air show takes off with billions of dollars in deals. we'll get an update after this. then ron williams on the future of obama care and what it means for you. plus retail talk and trends with the former ceo of toys r us. customer erin swenson ordered shoes from us online but they didn't fit. customer's not happy, i'm not happy. sales go down, i'm not happy. merch comes back, i'm not happy. use ups. they make returns easy. unhappy customer becomes happy customer.

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welcome back to "squawk box," the dubai air show began with the carriers announcing some of the biggest aviation deals in history. deals were announced on the first day. a new record outstripped the orders from the entire 2007 air show and cnbc now from dubai. good morning. >> reporter: good morning, andrew. well, good afternoon in dubai. it's been incredible few hours here at the air show. orders that we've not really seen in the past in terms of one batch. let me run you through how these gulf carriers are flexing their muscles with their orders. boeing really winning the first round of this dog fight against airbus. one famous or infamous over the

last few decades. boeing securing orders with emirates and, of course, with qatar airways. the biggest one and the biggest for boeing and its commercial order history. all of it the 777 x, which is the new generation airliner expected to come into service towards the latest end of this decade will be more fuel efficient. and although there had been doubts, emirates placing an order of 150 of those 777 xs and then you had qatar airways with 50. a total bill of about $100 billion for those wide-body aircraft. and, of course, that is seen as a bit of a setback for air bus. i spoke to the c.o.o. of air bus. he said, well, we're in the business of delivering airplanes not making future promises. i spoke to the president of boeing international shepherd

hill and here's what he had to say. >> we had a total of 259 which included orders from luftons, we don't anticipate more orders, but we'll see how it pans out for the rest of the week. >> reporter: so that was shepherd hill. very positive outlook. saying there could be more orders in the pipeline. remember, the air show is far from over. >> thank you very much. aga when we come back, ron williams, and later today, we do a little holiday shopping. the former toys r us ceo, we'll talk about the consumer trends and more. "squawk box" will be right back. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets

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welcome back to "squawk box," everyone. in our headlines this morning, sony sold more than 1 million of its new play station 4 consoles on friday. that was the first day it was available. and that put sony on track to meet a year end goal of 3

million. there have been scattered reports of problems with the consoles, but sony says the number of potentially defective units is very small and well within normal parameters. the fed is reportedly considering a delay in the e implementation of the so-called volcker rule. it would push back the date for complying by one year to july of 2015. it would prohibit proprietary trading at institutions that rely on federal guarantees like deposit insurance. and "thor" topped the weekend box office. the latest super hero movie took in $38.5 million. thor debuted in the number one spot last week. >> not into thor. >> i don't want to. >> i want to see but it's not on my list. >> we were on super hero constantly and this one -- >> but figure out why. >> why? >> this is not one of them.

he's got a hammer, right? >> is it a comcast film? >> no. >> okay. >> sony's -- >> all clear. >> i want to give the all clear on that. >> this is something we should always talk about. anyway, insurance company executives met at the white house friday after president obama mentioned the fix to the aca. let's talk about what this means to the nation health insurers. and over the years, ron, you've always -- you come on, you've been very honest and presented both sides of this. i've tried to get you on my side and i get part of you there once in a while, but you're very reasonable on the other side because we did need to do something, obviously. but invoked you earlier and i forgot who i said. this is your quote in the preinterview. the failure to get a bipartisan deal created a greek tragedy that will be a bifurcation in this country for quite some time. and that's the sad part. it is the law of the land and the program can be saved and

could've worked out better, was the poor implementation will sour a lot of -- that's where we are right now. >> unfortunately, that is where we are. and i do want to give the president and his team credit in stepping forward and owning the result. what do we do going forward in terms of fixing the program as best as we can. >> you also said, you know, it was nice of the president to give people this option about keeping it. so you really believe this was well -- the cynical view is that there was a vote coming the next day and they wanted to keep as many democrats on board as they could. they only lost 39, which is only four more than some of the previous times they tried to drive a wedge there. you think it's workable his plan? because the insurance commissioners don't think it can be done at this point. >> well, i would leave the politics to others. >> everyone says that. how can we talk about this without politics? >> i leave that to others. i'm focused on trying to get more people covered. the answer is, he opened a door. it's not clear how many people

will go through it and not clear how feasible it is to make it work. the health plans have spent over three years getting ready to implement this. and shortly before they implement it, there's a fundamental change in the rules. in order to make this work in most states, this decision would have had to have been made in june or july. some states and state legislatures and insurance commissioners will find a way through it to keep their plans. >> what would you do now? >> i think the thing i would do is the first is start the collaboration on the front end. i wouldn't make an announcement and then bring the insurance companies in. i would bring the insurance companies in, the consumer groups and really have a group working on collaboratively, what do we do to make the program work? i think this is really all about execution at this point. >> okay. so pretend he has just done that to you, what do you say to him? >> well, i think the things you have to look at is it time to

abandon the exchanges as the central point of focus in order for people to get the subsidy? the dark side to that or the downside, you then would have health plans out competing in the marketplace, everyone would try to get the better risk into their individual pool. if you look at what would help the consumer, one of the things i would do is really say you can get a subsidy by not going through the exchange. >> do you think it'd be a complete failure for the president. it's a central tenant of the whole program. >> i'm suggesting you have a pluralistic competitive environment as one potential option. the exchanges are now at risk for becoming high-risk pools. what we're learning, what we're learning is that insurance by and large is sold, not bought. the only people who buy it are people who need health care services today. >> here's an execution question that goes to the high risk pool issue. over the weekend, who reported 1 in 5 people.

the goal is going to be 80%. the initial goal is -- for the website to work for 80% of all people. if 20% can't get access, we all then talk about those last 20% constantly. what does that do to the ability to execute on the overall risk pool issue? >> well, i think what we're going to find is if it works for 80% of the people 80% who have the most pressing medical needs. we're in danger of turning the exchange into a high-risk pool if we don't find a way to -- >> no insurers are going to want to back it up or be in those pools. >> why not? >> well, my guess is you can't charge the premiums to help the health insurance. >> it'll result in higher premiums and fewer insurers, you're correct. >> let me ask you this, there are a lot of problems that preexisted, the insurance companies before we got to this. one of my biggest problems is that i can't shop around as a consumer.

i don't know what the plans actually offer. i didn't know it now, i didn't know it before, i don't know if it's covered. the doctor says submit this bill and we'll see what's covered and we'll bill you later. how do you change that? >> well, i think the private exchanges represent one important model. i think there's been a lot of progress in transparency, but a lot more to do. you ought to be able to know what your plan pays in advance. and some plans, your doctor can go online, enter whatever's going on and get a message back -- >> i'm in open enrollment right now, i can look at the different plans, i have no idea. >> the issue is we need more transparency, need better tools and better informed consumers. i would agree with you on that. >> if it starts happening where because of the rollout not being

optimal that you don't sign up as many people. and it becomes prohibitively more expensive. there are people that say this is going to be a budget buster. does anyone believe that $1 trillion savings that the cbo came up with for the first ten years anymore? is there anyone that doesn't think it's going to be expensive. >> well, one thing to get lost is the $165 billion or so that health care consumers are paying through the taxes that manifest themselves and medical devices and health plan taxes, pharmaceutical taxes. so we're asking the people who buy insurance to pay for a big part of the program by having those taxes included in their rates. so the answer is -- >> that's -- i still can't figure. we should've done it. we still should try to fix it. it's just -- >> what we have to -- >> it's 51% that we should do it. is that about where you are? >> no, i think the answer is we

have moral and social obligation to cover people who are uninsured. massachusetts is a model. what gets missed is massachusetts implemented five steps over 20 years. we're implementing five steps on one day. >> can we slow it down then? >> i don't think where we are now we can slow it down. that's why i think the whole question of collaboration among the key players is critical. you've got to get people together who are committed to making this work. i think the health plans are in it, consumer groups are in it. and i think that the physician and hospital community. you can't make policy from a political perspective and then turn it over to people to implement. we end up with what we have. >> just so i understand, you said it happened over 20 years, what happened? >> the first thing they combined the individual and small group market. the next thing they did was eliminate age, rating and compressed the age rating. then a few years later, they eliminated gender rating. then they eliminated the medical

underwriting. and then the last step was the requirement for the individual mandate. so that was a culmination of a 20-year process. and what we're doing is doing all of that at once to 10 million consumers. >> if you went to the step you talked about earlier of allowing private companies to market insurance and get the subsidies directly instead of through the exchanges. would that be done now? and would that be a quicker fix? >> i think what i would do is bring the groups together, have a discussion about the pluses and the minuses of that. >> i thought privacy concerns was one of the minuses to that. >> i'll give you an example, pick a tax preparing services, they already have people's financial information. there has to be a way to sort through this. >> do you remember when you were ceo still and the president at that point disparaged insurance ceos. i think it hurt you personally

back then. it did, right? >> it did. >> can he get at this point allowing insurers to sell policies at this point without looking like he's -- >> yeah. it's a great question. i would say that i felt that the rhetoric was overheated during that period and i think our employees felt it was overheated more importantly. i think that our obligation as citizens and leaders is to focus on what we can do to make the system work. >> politicians, you didn't really pay attention to what he was saying. >> politics is different than business. >> all right. >> i don't know what i'd do without the political side of it. ron williams, thank you. and walter will be with us. stand to wait 30. >> i'll stay until you kick me off. >> you can stay all day if you want, we're not going to pay you, though. parents can get a head start on the toy shopping season when

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. tyson foods earning 70 cents a share. revenues also in line. competition for your holiday dollars is expected to be fierce this year. >> joining us now is the ceo of storch advisers. and we've gotten some big warning signs already. hearing from walmart, hearing from kohl's that things are not great out there. >> it's shaky. the high end remains strong. we used to say it was a barbell economy. the numbers had a walmart and kohl's last week give suspicions that the low end isn't holding

up well. it's shaky on the bottom end too now. >> walter, you wanted to -- >> it's going to drive us this christmas. >> i think the video game consoles will be huge. you saw the new ps4, sold a million, sold out the first allocationment it's great to see a hot platform there. the xbox 1 is coming out soon, it's been a long time since there's been a hit in the business. the video game industry has been down 30% year on year for two years in a row. >> because people are getting tired of it or not getting new products? >> other people say, nope, it's just they haven't had the right content, the right consoles. we're going to find out this year. >> who wins? you want to make a bet? >> who wins between the digital? >> no, xbox, play station. >> well, everyone thought the sony offering was the best, the

ps4. but what we've seen out of microsoft with the xbox was at first it was more equal, but xbox won in the end. it's a great piece of hardware, more expensive. but over the long haul, a lot of people flock to it because the computing power. in the short-term, sony and in the long-term, i wouldn't bet against xbox. >> didn't we think they were going to take over the living room? >> well, everyone's in the living room now. >> we look at black friday and that was always a very early morning start and now it's happening in the middle of the evening on thursday, on thanksgiving day. >> well, one day i'm going to write a book about this because it begins a century ago. it used to be we always knew the first person, the first store that would get you in there would win in the morning. we used to give away coloring books, 5:00 a.m., 6:00 a.m., then someone got the idea, let's do it at midnight. kept moving earlier and earlier. not only do they do well on

black friday, they put out a press release gloating about what they'd done. what are you going to do as a competitor? you've got to play, fight. >> people are showing up for these ridiculous discounts where they pay next to nothing for things. they actually shop and get a large part of their holiday shopping done and it's profitable. >> well, i've seen a lot of debate, but if you take that thanksgiving night and friday that is still by far the largest shopping day of the year and it matters big time whether you win or lose. >> i'm doing a lot more of my shopping online. the idea of going out and fighting in stores, how much of a problem is that for the retailers? >> in the short-term it's an issue, in the long-term it should be a victory. they have the advantage of the physical location and most of the growth occurring today in the websites of bricks and mortar retails is coming from retailing. >> i'm going to amazon. i have to say, there are sometimes i will go to a brick and mortar retailer. but a lot of times, they're not as good as getting the stuff there quickly. >> huge amount of macy's growth

coming online. they're buying it online, shipping it from the store. that's one of 30 or 40 different ways they can leverage a bricks and mortar for the long-term advantage. >> thanks so much for coming in today. >> thank you. when we come back, time to fret about a new tech bubble. with the recent twitter ipo, it's certain things could be getting frothy. we're going to talk about that with our guest host walter isaacson.

welcome back to "squawk box." hey, joe, your head right there. facebook offered to buy photo and video sharing app snapchat for $3 billion, turned down, probably went up to $4 billion at one point. what does that say about a potential tech bubble 2.0? maybe 3.0 at this point. back with us, our guest host, walter isaacson, president and ceo of the aspen institute. you were currently in the process of writing a book all about the valley, as well. >> yeah, i'm writing about the history starting at world war ii when they invent the computer and the internet. >> what do you make of this? does this make sense to you? >> yeah, i think there's good companies out there. i'm not sure snapchat is something that will be around forever. but you're looking at companies that are -- including very innovative companies about to go public. i think drop box for me is totally indispensable. they will have apps. that's more than a social network.

i think uuber has transformed the way we go to cities. i love things like kimbo cards where we can do payments. things that do real things. >> they do real things, but not all of them do real revenues or in this case, forget about r revenues, profits are a problem. >> we know where they will come from. something like snapchat, yeah, i worry whether or not -- >> twitter. >> well, twitter feed, their ads, two or three of them inserted there. people who are doing sponsored tweets. even i can figure out how to monetize twitter. >> at $16 billion, could you monetize it? that's the question. what's facebook valued at these days? i mean, that's when things are -- the question is, are the numbers at this moment too high? does this feel like 1999. we had an investor -- >> what did you say? $120 billion.

does that make sense? >> yeah, i would worry a little bit about facebook because i thought they were going to be a great platform. i think that facebook has moved to the next level and being not just a social network but being a platform for other people to build upon and that means they have to partner a little bit better. >> think about this, comcast is worth $124 billion. and they have cables literally into every home into america. >> and they have "squawk box." >> yeah, they have "squawk box." >> andrew ross sorkin. >> thank you. but the point is, you look at facebook. hard to make the same -- >> i used to make that argument too when i was at time inc. and time warner, but the market isn't that dumb. >> tell me about jeff besos then. a company that has not made a profit in a while. or it could. >> if you turned on the switch, you could make a lot of profit. when i was at 1999, made him

person of the year. and all of a sudden the bubble starts to deflate. i asked don logan, the ceo of time inc., are we making a mistake? he says, no, that's a customer service company. they'll be around in 10, 20, 40 years. don't worry about it. plus, he is now with amazon web services done -- and i think ibm is actually a cool company. they're taking watson and putting him online, that super computer. so that we can all share -- i was listening to your kickout music last time was, you know, hey, get off of my cloud. >> right. >> the people getting on the cloud thing, that's where i worried because it's a buzz word. when you look at ibm saying we're going to have shared web services, we're going to allow you to timeshare. go back to the history i'm writing about in the book. it all begins with timesharing. we got away from that. once we can have shared web services, shared super computers, that brings things to the next level.

jeff besos is the smartest ceo. >> when you said that, that the market can't be that wrong and then i think about aol, remember that? >> no, i've forgotten that, joe. >> what was that total deal worth? that is staggering that the -- >> right. the year 2000, there was an astonishing -- >> how much was that deal? the aol -- >> no, you're right, there can be tech bubbles. >> and facebook makes me wonder. if kids really are -- did you see that article? and it's $120 billion. it's the same as comcast. >> apparently. we're going to come back. i'd love to know the history of bubbles in the valley. >> starts with tulips in amsterdam. >> might go back beyond that. and you don't -- you said owning the living room, he does not have any electronics. >> no, but i'm not the target market for a lot. hey, i'm not in the right

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a bleak prognosis for obama care. >> this woman has to be gotten to a hospital. >> what is it? >> it's a big building with patients. >> former senate majority leader bill frist and former hhs secretary and governor tommy thompson. boeing orders soaring at the dubai air show. >> surely you can't be serious. >> i am serious and don't call me shirley. >> we'll tell you what it means for the stock. plus, the founder of the nba start-up worldwide, it's a cloud management service you might already be using. the third hour of "squawk box" starts right now. >> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc first in business worldwide.

walter isaacson, i'm thinking president and ceo. i was smirking at you, not at him. >> i know. >> i'm thinking, president and ceo of the aspen institute. it's not -- why aspen? it's not the youngstown institute or the detroit institute. >> we have a campus, the headquarters -- >> aspen, colorado? >> right. >> that's a pretty nice place to pick, isn't it? >> right, a group of chicago industrialists when they started it 60 years ago. >> not the cleveland institute. it's not the youngstown -- >> it was a real estate play. they all bought the ski company and other things, they started a music festival. >> that's taken. so if i'm ever in charge of an institute, i'm thinking, i don't know. that's a good one. >> yeah. >> i like -- >> don't -- >> i like the way you think. i like the way you think. he's the best-selling author of the biography steve jobs. more from walter still ahead. that wasn't a smirk, it was -- smirk is an ugly word.

>> a sneer? >> no. oh, my god. sneering is the worst. it was a knowing smile. >> just jovial. >> jovial smile. thank you. you have headlines. >> some other books. benjamin franklin -- >> i know. we do have news, jpmorgan agreeing to pay $4.5 billion to settle claims by investors who lost money on mortgage backed securities. the bank reaching a deal with 21 institutional investors in 330 residential mortgage trusts that had been issued by jpmorgan and bear stearns. the settlement does not include trusts. the deal is separate from the preliminary settlement the bank reached with the government. you've got to add the 13, they've taken a reserve of about 23 billion in total. they're still under that cap for now. also, big news over the weekend. former treasury secretary tim geithner is joining private equity firm as the president and

managing director. since leaving the government, geithner has been a distinguished fellow at the council on foreign relations and conducted a series of seminars at schools across the country also in the process of writing a book about his tenure at the treasury and his time as the head of the new york federal reserve. >> sellout. >> what are you saying? sellout? >> i was coughing. >> i heard you say sellout. there's a lot of people who said over the weekend this was a sellout move. >> i know. i know you want to talk about. >> i will say i don't think that's the case because he was part of government. >> yes. >> the last 20 years. >> he was. >> what do you think? >> i think it's really good. the first book i did with a friend of mine was called the wise men. they went in and out of government quite often to banks like chase manhattan back then. this was a good thing for people to come from running businesses into government and go back.

>> well, there's some private sector experience can come in handy once in a while. >> well, yeah. >> what do you make of the critics on this one. have you gone to city group. would it be different if they'd gone to goldman or something like that for you? full revolving door is okay. i think he spent a lot of time trying to figure out a firm. the quietest way. i think he thought to himself, i can't work at a big bank, can't work at black rock. >> then, yeah, you can say it's a sellout. but if you feel where he's going and the work he's going to be doing is actually useful to the economy, then -- >> the other criticism is going to be he knew in two or three years when he was making some of these -- this is what you're going to say. >> i'm sorry, you're supposed to work at the fed and be in government for 20, 30 years and swear off ever taking a job. >> there was a scathing piece over the weekend that suggesting that all of the decisions he made over the last five years in

setting himself up for the next -- >> that is not true. let us say that. let us say -- >> i agree with you. >> he made decisions because he's an honorable person and it's not so set himself up to get a job. >> the question is, how does that message if that is the accurate message, get out to the public because i imagine that's not necessarily the prevailing -- >> if i had a column at the "new york times," i know i could write it. >> i may write that for tomorrow. thank you. >> it tickles me when poor larry finally feels what it's like for what republicans get from the progressives. i love when you turn on your own and it's happening with geithner too. it tickles a lot of people to watch that. watching the whole larry summers. he could have been confirmed by republicans. >> right. that's true. it's elizabeth warren wouldn't have allowed it to happen. >> right. >> there you go. anyway. >> you guys can talk about it. and you can argue. i think it goes without saying that the private -- the banking industry provides all the capital for entrepreneurs and i

don't approach it from the viewpoint that not only you say they're not all evil -- implying that probably most of them are but there are a couple of nice ones around. watching you two guys -- >> you're saying not evil. >> we've got to move on. >> i have to move on. >> the rollout of obama care has been a debacle. a much deeper problem could be rising costs in the nation's health care system. and joining us now is former senate majority leader and nationally recognized heart and lung transplant surgeon bill frist. truly a renaissance man. we never can understand, doctor, who goes into politics anymore. but probably the last guy would be a heart and transplant surgery. especially one who owned a huge company, as well. but you do it all, right? >> well, you know, when i came into the senate in 1994, the last doctor who had been elected there had been elected there 67

years ago. which is kind of interesting because the economy, 18% of our economy is health care. and until i came in the senate, there hadn't been a doctor there in 67 years. >> and senator, you're another one. i've had you on many different times and you can't -- you're kind of an enigma. you were not antiobama care. and you're still not anti-obama care. you'd like to see it work but you acknowledge there's a lot that needs to be probably fixed. >> yeah, you know. obama care took the wrong issue really at the wrong time. at the time obama care passed, what the problem was what the american people cared about shown by all the polls was the cost of health care. and that's still the problem today where people simply can't afford health care policies today. they can't afford the premiums if they go to the hospital or doctor, they can't afford it. unfortunately, to president obama and the congress took on the access issue, another problem, but not the fundamental problem. the access issue is obama care

and at the same time now chaos centered around that costs are exploding and costs will continue to explode until the markets help correct those. so, yes, the whole idea of getting as many people in the insurance market as possible is good and makes sense. but clearly that goal of affordable access through universal insurance, the goal of obama care is not going to be met and thus it is failing. premiums are going to go up this year, they're going to go up next year and the year after that. >> senator frist, we've seen the cost curve of health care level off and actually taper off the rising health care costs recently. we were debating a little earlier in the show whether that's simply because of the bad economy or whether there are other factors. what are you saying? >> walter, and i didn't see the earlier part of the show. it's been studied again. there have been five different

studies. there has been flattening of health spending traditionally over the last 40 years of this country, it's gone up 2% faster than inflation. when inflation comes down and the economy comes down, the flattening will curve with the spending. of the really five substantive studies done, they have said that the health care recession, the fact that you don't go get your mri, when you have no money to do it. recession counts for about three -- about a quarter of the fall of spending. so as we've had this flattening and the economy comes back, about 3/4 of the overall increase in spending will come back. so a little bit is because more integration vertically, horizontally, more coordination of care, none of that has to do with obama care, just markets working better. but due to the recession itself and it will come has happened

times in the last 50 years. when the economy goes down, health care spending goes down. >> you're probably in a unique position as a health care executive or a doctor and former senator, how expensive could you see this being in the next two or three years as we figure out how to do this? >> the macro sense -- it's pretty easy in my mind. and in the macro sense, it'll cost an additional $1.5 trillion over a ten-year period. the products we get for that $1.5 trillion will not be universal coverage. in ten years 35 to 40 million people uninsured if obama care works perfectly. for that $1.5 trillion in spending, we're not getting very much. the real focus today does need to be on the cost of health care because the $1.5 trillion in spending doesn't mean that much to people. but what we mean rural families, 30-year-olds, 35-year-olds,

people with two children will not be able to afford the skyrocketing premiums we'll see, in part because of obama care because the young people are not signing up and they're not going to sign up because it's not a good deal for them. if you're 30 years of age and all of a sudden you're going to have to pay twice as much for an insurance policy when you were doing fine and didn't need much health care, you're not going to do it. and the premise of obama care is that young people under the age of 35 to 37 are going to have to pay a whole lot more, not get much more, but pay a whole lot more in order to subsidize the program. >> $1.5 trillion, 30 million still uninsured, and will the entire health care system be delivering worse care? will i be driving past hospitals that aren't covered in my plan? will i have to find new doctors and wait for specialists? will it be a worse system? it'll cost $1.5 trillion. >> no, and let me tell you why

it will not. people tend to lose in washington and on television shows, there's a revolution going on today, a transformation that's totally different than when i was doing heart transplants and my dad was doing internal medicines. it's being made possible today by a consumer that is increasingly smart and empowered with information. earlier in the show, you were talking about silicon valley. the super computing, the parallel computing, the companies you were talking about earlier today are empowering people such as myself to take better care of ourselves. the overall cost of health care is not better doctors, not obama care, not vanderbilt, not harvard, not romney care. the overall driver of health care costs and health care spending is 40% behavior. how we take care of ourselves. wear seat belts, obesity, do we wear smart bands like jawbone where we can see what our diet is, how much we sleep, what our exercise tolerance is.

if we can continue to empower the individual with information that is easy to understand and that's what this whole computer app pda revolution is all about. we are and will continue to have this great inflection in medicine where you have 100 million empowered consumers making choices, bringing down health care costs. and that will be happening at the same time regardless of what happened with obama care. >> thanks. >> which one of your sons graduated from harvard mba. >> well, i've got kara and another one -- >> i know harrison, tell him i said hi. >> i will. >> very quickly before you go away, what you described was consumers getting smarter, driving down health care costs. who are the losers in that scenario? >> well, it's -- >> but there's got to be people feeding on -- the middle men feeding on in between. >> those are the people we need

to get to. 30% of the $3 trillion we have in health care every year is wasted. >> right. >> that $30 trillion of true waste, you want to go away and you do it by transparency, better accountability, know what you're buying. if the mra costs $2,200 and costs $1,500 at the doctors office, and the same machine with an app today you can figure that out, two years ago you couldn't. that's where the money comes from. >> is it the mri makers the ones that get squeezed? >> no, it's the middle market. the $2,200 at the academic health center right now is being used to train people, inefficiency, loss of productivity. an empowered consumer with good information is going to choose the one that gives them the most value. people with no productivity, bad productivity are going to be out of business or gain productivity. >> will there be a republican majority leader in 2014?

>> you know, i don't know. things are switching quickly. i think two weeks ago, i think people said republicans are out and now they say maybe they have something about it. we'll have to wait and see. >> all right. senator, doctor, thank you, appreciate it. >> great to be with you, thank you. >> rutgers didn't play this weekend, did they? did the football team? did you know? did you happen to -- >> matt? >> did rut gegers? >> they lost to cincinnati. >> it was really bad. >> someone asked me whether i mentioned that to you. >> no, you hadn't. you weren't paying attention. >> it's like when it's your birthday and you're getting there. >> it's 8:15, 2 1/2 hours. >> it was football. >> rug by, wasn't that? >> thought i was going to escape you. a number of headlines out of

the dubai air show. leading with the order for 150 of boeing's new 777 x aircraft, a deal worth $76 billion at list prices. it also ordered 50 airbus a380s. announcing commitments for 259 new 777 x accident jets and worth about $100 billion at list prices. that's the largest combined order in boeing's history. we'll talk more about 8:35 eastern time with an airline industry analyst. in the meantime, take a look at the markets this morning, the u.s. equity futures are a little bit above fair value right now. 21 points above fair value, under a point for the s&p futures. but they both closed at record levels on friday. coming up, a lightning round, we'll talk about the future of media, the impact of the spying scandal and the next big tech titan. boeing locking orders on at

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our guest host this morning has been walter isaacson. before he goes, we want to get his take on the top stories in the news. everything from the nsa to who the thinks the next steve jobs will be. let's start talking about the nsa. it's been a big debate here. have they gone too far? have they doing the right thing to keep us safe? >> they've gone too far. they've gone way too far. and that's sort of a process in government where you're always trying to cover yourself. this is why democracy's a pretty cool thing. is, you know, now there's going to be a bit of a tapering back. i think there's going to be a sensible balance and, yeah, we still have to do things like track phone calls. but we have to do it in a little bit more sensible way. >> i think it was the "new york times" story that pointed out they have over $10 billion, over 35,000 employees working there. and now that you have technology that can do anything, it's hard to draw the lines. >> that's the problem, drawing the lines.

but you do need to collect the data. same people screaming they shouldn't be doing it are saying, hey, how come you didn't track those boston bombers when you knew they were getting phone calls. so i do think, you know, we really -- einstein once said, amazing thing about america, it has a gyroscope and it's democracy. we can't tilt too far one way or the other on this one. >> edward snowden, hero or villain? >> he's a villain, you shouldn't be dishonorable. >> he's a villain. now, if you were at "time" magazine, would you have a different view? if he showed up while you were running it, you would have done what? >> there were a lot of times when i was at "time" magazine where you hold back information you feel could be harmful. you have to balance things in life. >> but your balance you think would have been not to publish or publish? >> i haven't looked at all of the details. publish some, but be careful about what you publish. by the way, that's why it was a

good idea when we had better relations to be able to call up and say, tell me the truth, how harmful will this be? and people would tell you the truth in government and say, okay, i'll leave this part out and that's what the "washington post" says. that's probably the way to do. that's what we do in life every day. >> so starting this new site, which is probably going to be much more progressive, if you will, or liberal about what it's willing to publish or not. is that a good thing or a bad thing? >> it's like, you know, railing against the tide. it's an inevitable thing. once the digital age happened. once the monica lewinski scandal and you realized people can't hold stories anymore in an age in which anyone can publish globally. >> get back to -- i just thought about this, could geithner have gone to bain? >> you're very good at

counterfactual histories. >> no, in light of that election and in light of i guess it was started by his, you know, in the debates against other republicans. >> yeah. >> the whole private equity demonization, but it is rich that an obama confidant is -- >> in private equity? >> no. i realize ed now i do have a problem and it's rich that now the former treasury secretary can go to the place where it was totally vilified to win an election. >> let's go back to snowden. >> might be easier for you. >> you've been thinking about that for a while. >> no, i watch the twittersphere. he couldn't have gone to bain. i'll pick one that not everyone has heard of before. >> okay. i want to throw another one at walter. the next steve jobs. you were talking about the drop

box. who is the next steve jobs. i interviewed elan musk last week. >> he's totally like steve jobs. imaginative, driven. not sure he'll be successful. i love what he's doing. i love, you know, we talk about tesla. i think people who are breaking the bounds are really going to do it. but i like the two houstons. i like drew houston of drop box, that's somebody who has thought of a whole new idea. or houston frost. i think there are a lot of people who are sort of steve jobs like. they're saying the consumer doesn't know what the consumer wants until we invent it and show them. >> right. >> let's talk about the airlines. >> we're in a situation where airline stocks have finally taken off. you've converted people like bill miller and jim cramer who never wanted to touch these things before.

and yet the complaints from passengers have increased over time. that was inevitable. >> the biggest thing for the airlines. you're talking about the emirates buying more boeings and stuff. we don't have a good national airline policy in the united states. saying that would be one of the things he would do. the best thing you could do for the consumer, for global warming, for anything is to have a better next generation air traffic control so that you could have direct clean of flights, you could land better. and basically, it's worse than the gps in your car. >> it is far worse. and this is a normal thing that a good country does in terms of infrastructure. >> goes to infrastructure spending. somewhere around $30 billion. >> just like people like joe who are sitting on a runway. but also it would save in terms of fuel burned in terms of the

efficiency of the system. and so these are externalties that the market doesn't price that well. surely when they're doing massive subsidies of emirate air, you have to get a control system that works. >> that's a basic infrastructure. i'm surprised it's taken this long. >> i don't quite get it. that's peg one in the policy. >> we want to thank you very much for being with us today. again, walter isaacson is with the aspen institute. we'll see you again soon. >> thank you very much. a smooth guys ahead for boeing. stock near an all-time high and inking $100 billion in new orders. right now as we head to a break, take a look at this, europe's most active volcano has erupt again. mt. etna lighting up the sky and

shooting up a towering column of ash. the eruption began saturday and tapered off sunday morning. did not damage any of the villages and no evacuations were ordered.

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sales go up, i'm happy. i ordered another pair. i'm happy. (both) i'm happy. i'm happy. happy. happy. happy. happy. happy happy. i love logistics. welcome back to "squawk box." a look at the stocks on the move in this trading morning.

tyson foods reporting fiscal fourth quarter profit of 70 cents per share. with revenue also slightly above consensus. tyson's results were helped by higher chicken sales as well as a rebound in its feed business. also the second straight quarter of profit. investors are encouraged by a steadying of solar panel prices after they declined for almost four years. and nvidia shares undervalued from underweight to equal weight. for some of the graphics, chip makers new offerings may already be priced into the stock. tornadoes and damaging storms sweeping across the midwest yesterday. illinois took the brunt of the fury with late season tornadoes wiping out homes and injuring dozens. at least six people were killed. the storms also hit parts of wisconsin, indiana, ohio, and kentucky. chicago's soldier field was basically shut down during the

bears/ravens game for two hours. the game eventually resumed with the bears winning in overtime. >> let's get a check on the markets. first, though, steve liesman is onset with us to set up -- what's that -- we have numbers this week? >> oh, man, numbers, fed, all kinds of stuff. will the me tell you what we've got here. today is not a day not to pay attention because we have fed speak in surplus here, that's today, tomorrow, evans and you guys already talked earlier this morning about the bernanke speech tomorrow night at 7:00. we'll be following that closely. wednesday, cpi, look for unchanged on the headline. retail sales also unchanged. watch for the control group which takes out some of the other stuff that feeds into gdp. and normally you don't make a big deal about business inventories, but it's been the big swing factor in our growth

numbers both for the third quarter and the fourth quarter. wednesday, the minutes claim at 3:35. powell and bullard on thursday. i want to show you quickly on the outlook for growth we have. macro economic advisers are tracking forecast running at 3.3 versus the actual 2.8. and that's because as we talked about before, the inventory push in the third quarter. but the expectation is that detracts from growth in the third quarter. those saying that it will mask a better economy in the fourth quarter. they think lower oil prices, waning fiscal drag will help in the fourth quarter. and just one quote i could not resist from jpmorgan because of the headline, section queen janet -- a lot of details on

differences. consider the difference in the background between volcker and greenspan or greenspan and bernanke. they look like they were separated at birth. not a lot of change expected in the policy between the two and that's the wrap-up of the week ahead. >> do you want to weigh in on geithner really quick? >> well, i think he picked a firm that would not be one that would be controversial in terms of him going. >> he didn't love the revolving door aspect. he didn't go to bain. he didn't go to black rock or o to, you know, i think this makes sense for him. i think it's enough under the radar in the sense it's not a huge controversy. i don't think he's gunning for another job. i've always wondered about the job he would take that would allow him to come back into the public sector. >> and you think this allows it. >> in this world today, which is very different than the world five years ago, the back and forth between the wall street and government is a lot more

limited than it used to be. and i think there's some possibility for pincus to return. >> i think i agree with that. >> there used to be an insurance company called the quiet company. >> the thing is pincus will not be quiet any longer. >> it's a quiet business, though, isn't it? >> the focus on it will change. >> why? >> there's probably three or four decent stories written in the past five years about the firm. now that he runs the place -- >> you think it'll be more covered. that doesn't mean it'll be louder. >> but by -- >> he's not running it. there's two co-ceos. he's the president. >> you're the president of the company. every deal from now on is going to say warburg, pincus, comma -- >> that's true. but isn't it a function of the kind of deals? there are some guys that go out there and buy high profile

companies and rip them up in a high profile kind of way and others that go in with the consent of the management and they're much quieter. >> i think they're going to do big deals, big-name deals. >> why not go in and rip them up and fire people and take the big dividends? >> that's not what i said at all. they do it in much more volatile -- >> these are ones that actually care about. they care about -- >> some of them end up creating jobs as a result. >> well, that's big of you to admit that. >> some of them end up destroying jobs and taking dividends. it's a matter of being of the profit motive. >> well, it's good to show that the right-hand man through the whole going through romney industry. you've got to love it, don't you, rick? >> oh my god, and to listen to steve to try to listen to the nuances of how private equity's done in the good way or not so good way. is there any truth to the rumor

jon corzine will be his receptionist. i don't know if you picked up on that. what can we say, joe? you've said it all. everybody bites the hand that feeds them with regard to the marketing done during the election cycle. we can all see they go to the feed trough nonetheless. i think it's interesting to look at a 269, 270 tenure in the context. i love peter bookfar who is one of our contributors. doesn't see a bubble in stocks and thinks when the economy normalizes rates will normalize. between those two statements, i'm surprised i have any eyelashes at all left. i think i was pulling them out most of the weekend. >> all right, rick. good to see you, welcome back. we'll see you later this week. that's for sure. a lot of stuff happening. we'll hear from every fed guy in the world. if we talk about tapering --

>> nobody cares. the bond market is going to take it on its own shoulders. once we cross that $4 trillion threshold on their balance sheet, i'm telling you, more and more people are going to be looking for a map on how to get back to the right universe. >> thank you. when we come back, boeing taking in more than $100 billion of new orders at the dubai air show. what it means for the stock right after this. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 trading inspires your life.

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welcome back, everybody, shares of microsoft under some pressure this morning. bank of america, merrill lynch d cutting the rating from under perform to neutral. $36 below where the stock is now at $37.25. the analysts said recent performances tied to the ceo candidates and potential for divestitures and restructuring. bank of america sees 10% upside in the stock if alan mulaly is chosen as the new boss. meanwhile, the firm sees downturn if bates becomes the ceo. divestitures become distant realities a the that point. the dubai air show locking in more than $100 billion in

orders for boeing. including a deal for new 777 x aircraft. and joining us to talk about how it impacts boeing's stock. and this is above expectations for how boeing faired, howard? >> joe, a little bit. we had thought they could do maybe 200, 250, we're at the high end. in fact, i like the additional order for additional 787s that got snuck in there, as well. >> airbus above or below in terms of their numbers? >> probably about in line. it's a little bit of as positive surprise for them to get 380 orders. but i discount them they only went to emirates. >> what do you ascribe the 737 in russia, howard? is that the safest aircraft in the world? >> i can't comment on an accident it's too far away and it's something that -- >> yeah, but in general, we've seen it happen before sometimes in russia. it typically -- people always

want to talk about the maker of the plane, but there's a lot that goes into these. pilots, training, regulation, all those things, right? >> weather, you name it. >> all right. as far as as these 20-year forecasts that boeing has been giving, how much confidence do you have in being able to look out that far? >> well, we kind of look out a little less than that, ten years and, you know, the trend is up, air traffic's growing north of five. the markets that are growing are developed markets, places where disposable income is expanding. and these orders make some sense. >> the dream liner right now, we were talking about that earlier, the problems are behind the company now. >> i think so. i mean, they've crossed the 100 unit threshold and likely to deliver very close to aircraft this year. >> okay. that's pretty amazing. as far as the rest of the -- over the next ten years, you're

looking at the growth area is where? china? >> it's not only going to be china, there's latin america, russia in the end, eastern europe. places where we see rising income. and it's really broad based. >> and you don't -- the merger activity, we'll have three major airlines in this country. we need to move a certain amount of people, don't we? it's still a good place. still a good business to manufacture aircraft. >> it's a great place to manufacture aircraft. but what boeing's doing which is clever and creative, it's putting subcontract work in customers' markets. and so there's a beneficial interest in ordering boeing p n planes by doing that. >> okay. appreciate your time. andrew, the 777 or the dream liner. >> yes. >> you aren't claiming to want to go up on branson's thing, right? >> no. not yet. >> not yet? >> i would want it to go 100 or maybe 500 or 1,000 times.

>> you're asking about flying on a dreamliner. i can't see you getting on the branson thing if you're worried about -- >> i would like to see them all succeed and then get on afterwards. >> i'm going nowhere near gravity free zone after seeing gravity. >> i'd go, i just want to make sure -- >> don't you like air, though? >> yes. >> just whatever. >> oxygen, might be able to get up there. new ranking of the top nba start-ups is out. up next, we'll talk to the founder of the nba start-up.

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>> welcome back to "squawk box." we have access to some of the first ever top start-up lists. joining us now frederick, the co-founder and chief operating officer of a cloud based access and identity management start-up. it's number five on the list. congratulations, first of all. >> thank you, good morning, andrew, becky and joe. it's great to be with you here and thanks for having me on "squawk box." >> just for our viewers. just explain what it is that it does. >> it's an identity and access management service. we help companies that are secure and control and manage the applications that they use.

they make it easier for the end users and customers. one user name and password to manage. >> this would actually help prevent edward snowden, for example, to get through everything? i'm trying to get an example of what, this is one password per person? for all the apps inside a corporation? >> exactly. i can't really speak to mr. snowden and his challenges. but it would help solve the problem that you and i might have at home where we have too many user names, too many pass words to access our bank accounts and travel sites. >> this is a b2 b product. >> that's right. >> when will we get to a place where we can have one password as a consumer on gmail and apple and all the different sites. what are we going to get there? >> very soon. one of our forthcoming products. >> you are going to go to the consumer soon?

>> at one point, yes. it's a great opportunity for us. >> you can't do a fingerprint? >> fingerprint's a good start. i think there's a lot more to it. >> are you into the fingerprint thing? i spoke to somebody recently -- i won't say who who suggested they thought the biometric stuff was actually going to long-term become a problem. >> i think it's a great opportunity, i think the devices that have come out with it are very good, few you think about it, it's been around for a while. you might have had a laptop over the last five or ten years that has had fingerprint. it depends on how people use it. >> now, just -- just history -- your entrepreneurship and history. i love to hear a great story. you met your partner in all of this at sales force. went to m.i.t. how did this get started? >> yeah. i did. i met me co-founder at salesforce.com, we met there and what we saw there with a lot of customers was as they would become successful with salesforce.com and think about using other applications, other

softwares and service applications, what most of us call cloud applications like office 365 or like workday for hr, they would become very successful with them but they would start running into basic problems. one of the problems was that problem was what we just talked about, we have too many user names and passwords. same thing in the enterprise. the user inhibits your productivity when you can't remember your passwords. also becomes a big security problem. what we realized was with mobile it was going to get to be a bigger problem. >> i hope you introduce this consumer product that i can then use as quickly as possible. >> that sounds good. thanks for having me. >> this can be found at gew.cnbc.com. we'll see in cramer will compete for the $1 million

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jim cramer is joining us from the dream force conference in san francisco. i just wondered when there's a cloud conference, is it just dispersed throughout the entire cosmos or is there a place where everybody meets? >> this is one of the biggest -- this is like a stadium. it's like a very big football game, including an inflatable tunnel that mark and his team will run out of at 1:00 -- no, that's a different sport entirely. but it's a very exciting ground zero for public and private tech companies that are based on the cloud, meaning that they are not ibm. they are not oracle. >> do you have a gauntlet?

do you have an enterouge? >> i have no posse. i am a man of the people. i brought my eagle's jacket. >> it's getting excited. you know why? because of the giants. i can't remember where we are. who would believe that the jets were better than the giants. how long did that last? >> well, i tell you, the giants are a hot team. the eagles are a hot team. it's sunday night flex. it's at 830 and you can barely go to work the next day. i thought the isakson stuff you were doing is wonderful. in the end, an optimist, jam one is going to be a nightmare and, joe, there is no con sasensus.

>> on facebook you saw -- $120 billion. i mean, walter isakson i mentioned, the market doesn't always get things right, does it? only a few shares have to trade hands at 120 billion. doesn't mean that you can montesi sdplchltmonte montesize that, does it? >> although it's freezing here, it feels like it's 1999, 2000 and we don't want that. >> a view on geithner real quick. >> you know, i'm pro-tim. did i expect more? i don't know. i think that in the end there's that move into private equity is what they do. it's what they do. >> thank you, guys. >> more from the dreamforce conference. and surprise winner for

second place nearly doubling estimates. we'll tell you what it is when we return. ready to run your lines? okay, who helps you focus on your recovery? yo, yo, yo. aflac. wow. [ under his breath ] that was horrible. pays you cash when you're sick or hurt? [ japanese accent ] aflac. love it. [ under his breath ] hate it. helps you focus on getting back to normal? [ as a southern belle ] aflac. [ as a cowboy ] aflac. [ sassily ] aflac. uh huh. [ under his breath ] i am so fired. you're on in 5, duck. [ male announcer ] when you're sick or hurt, aflac pays you cash. find out more at aflac.com.

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world" held number one at the box office but in second place, "the best man holiday" brought in $30.6 million. the movie is about a group of friends gathering for christmas. it's a sequel to a 1999 "the best man." right now it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good monday morning. i'm carl quintanilla along with david faber. in san francisco is jim cramer at the user conference dreamforce 2013. still celebrating the